Le Pen awaits ruling that could decide 2027 bid

Marine Le Pen’s path to France’s presidency may be decided in a Paris courtroom on Tuesday, when an appeal court rules whether to uphold an embezzlement conviction that barred the far-right leader from public office for five years.

The verdict, due at 13:30 local time, could determine whether Le Pen, who has run for president three times and twice lost to Emmanuel Macron, can stand in the 2027 election. She is leading polls with about 10 months to go before the vote, whose first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027, followed by a runoff on May 2.

If she is blocked, National Rally chairman Jordan Bardella, her 30-year-old protégé, is expected to run in her place.

Le Pen was convicted on March 31, 2025, over the misuse of European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. The BBC reported that the court found her guilty of embezzling €1.4 million in European Parliament money to pay party employees instead of parliamentary assistants while she was a member of the European Parliament. Al Jazeera reported that the Paris criminal court said Le Pen was at the heart of “a fraudulent system” that siphoned off EU Parliament funds worth €2.9 million, and that the National Rally was fined €2 million, half of it suspended.

Le Pen was sentenced to four years in prison, with two years suspended and two to be served at home with an electronic tag. The original judgment found she either approved or tolerated the fake-jobs scheme. Prosecutors have asked the appeal court to keep the five-year ban on public office and impose a four-year sentence with one year under an electronic tag and three years suspended.

Le Pen and her party deny wrongdoing. During the appeal, heard in January and February, she denied organising a scam but acknowledged “a mistake” that led to some parliamentary aides working “for the benefit of the party”. Her side has argued that the funds were used legitimately and that prosecutors applied too narrow a definition of a parliamentary assistant’s role.

The court has several options. It could acquit Le Pen, leaving her free to campaign. It could uphold the conviction and maintain a ban long enough to keep her off the ballot. Or it could reduce the ban to two years or less, which would allow her to run because the clock has been ticking since the sentence was imposed in March 2025.

An electronic tag could also shape her decision. Le Pen has said she is not afraid of the ruling but does not believe she can campaign effectively if she is subject to movement restrictions. “When you are a presidential candidate you must be completely free to move about,” she said, adding, “I can’t rely on a judge to allow me to hold a rally or go to a market.”

She told LCI last week: “If I can be a candidate, I will be a candidate, provided that I am able to campaign.” She also said: “Whatever happens I won’t be dead, whatever happens I’ll continue to fight for my ideas.”

Le Pen could challenge an adverse ruling before the Court of Cassation, France’s highest court, which reviews whether lower courts applied the law correctly. Such a challenge could take several months. The BBC reported that she has indicated she would not pursue that route, while Al Jazeera reported she has said, “If I cannot be a candidate, I will make use of every available avenue of appeal.”

Bardella has publicly backed her. “I want to reiterate my total support, my total friendship, and that I’m committed to her in politics, to see her elected president of the republic,” he told supporters at the weekend. Le Pen has said Bardella would be her prime minister if she became president, but that she would support him with “great energy, great conviction and great confidence” if the courts prevent her from running.

Twenty-four people were convicted in the case in March 2025, including members of the European Parliament and party officials. Twelve appealed, among them National Rally vice-president Louis Aliot, former National Front secretary general Nicolas Bay, Bruno Gollnisch, Catherine Griset and former treasurer Wallerand de Saint-Just.