US midterm results could take days to settle control of Congress

The first votes in the US midterm elections are expected to be reported Tuesday night, but Americans may have to wait days to learn whether President Donald Trump’s Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats take one or both chambers.

All 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are on the ballot. A party needs 218 seats for a House majority and 51 for an outright Senate majority. If the Senate splits 50-50, the vice-president’s tie-breaking vote gives their party control.

Polls first close at 6 p.m. Eastern time (23:00 GMT) in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Those early returns are unlikely to settle the broader picture: the BBC describes those states as safe Republican territory and Vermont, where polls close at 7 p.m., as safely Democratic. News organizations can project a winner before every ballot is counted if the remaining votes cannot overcome a candidate’s lead. A close race, however, could take hours or days to call.

Several competitive Senate races could offer clues as voting ends across the country. Ohio’s polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, followed by Maine and most of Michigan, Kansas and Texas at 8 p.m. Iowa and the remaining parts of Michigan, Kansas and Texas close at 9 p.m. The last voting in Alaska ends at 1 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

The BBC reports that the Cook Political Report rates seven Senate contests as toss-ups: Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Republicans currently hold six of those seats and Democrats one. According to the BBC, Democrats need to win four of the seven, along with four seats rated likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51. The BBC also identifies New York’s 17th District, Pennsylvania’s 8th District and Virginia’s 1st District as closely watched House races. It says Republicans currently hold 218 House seats, with one independent voting alongside them.

Counting procedures differ by state. Election officials release totals as they process ballots; those totals are not themselves declarations of victory. Mail ballots can take longer because officials must check envelopes and signatures. Al Jazeera reports that California’s largely mail-based elections can leave close House races unresolved for days or weeks. In Nevada, ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive up to four days later, and voters have six days to correct signature problems. Washington also counts eligible mail ballots after Election Day.

Ranked-choice voting could slow results in Alaska and Maine if further tabulation is needed. Al Jazeera says Alaska’s next round of counting, if required in its Senate race, is scheduled for November 18. Other states may move faster: it reports that Florida had counted about 99% of votes by 10:51 p.m. Eastern in the 2024 general election, citing The Associated Press.

Close margins may trigger recounts under state law, and candidates can challenge results in court. States administer and certify elections, while the House and Senate have final authority to judge disputes over their own members’ elections. Asked whether he would respect the midterm results, Trump said, “I will if there are honest elections.”

There is no single deadline for every race to be called. Al Jazeera reports that determining House control took eight days in 2024. In 2022, the BBC says, a House majority was projected on November 17, while a Georgia Senate runoff was not decided until December 7.