Key takeaways:
- All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot; Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control.
- The Cook Political Report rates 18 House districts and seven Senate seats as toss-ups, most currently held by Republicans.
- The BBC reported that Republican groups had about $320 million on hand in mid-October, compared with just under $230 million for Democrats.
Americans vote Tuesday in midterm elections that could put Democrats in control of one or both chambers of Congress and reshape the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate; Democrats are seeking to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the president and concern about the cost of living.
All 435 voting seats in the House are on the ballot, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and three U.S. territories and decide thousands of state and local contests. Trump has urged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot,” The Guardian reported.
Republicans hold 218 House seats, the minimum needed for a majority, and have the support of an independent who votes with them. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats; Democrats hold 45, with two independents voting with them. Democrats need to gain four seats for a Senate majority.
The map offers opportunities but few easy wins. The Cook Political Report rates 18 House districts as toss-ups, including 14 held by Republicans, according to the BBC. Its Senate ratings identify seven toss-ups, six held by Republicans. The Guardian reported that a Reuters estimate puts the number of genuinely competitive House races at roughly 40 to 50, reflecting a broader measure than Cook’s toss-up category.
Michigan is a crucial Senate test for Democrats. Abdul El-Sayed is trying to hold the seat being vacated by Democrat Gary Peters against Republican Mike Rogers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican state attorney general Ken Paxton. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, the BBC reported; The Guardian noted that no Democrat has won any statewide election there since 1994. Other Senate contests drawing attention include Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa.
The economy is central to the campaign. Trump promised in 2024 to “end inflation and make America affordable again,” but voters continue to cite living costs as a leading concern. In his February State of the Union address, he said gasoline was “now below $2.30 a gallon in most states.” The BBC reported that prices later reached $4 a gallon after the war with Iran disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies. An August poll cited by the BBC found 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump’s handling of the situation. Healthcare and immigration are also prominent issues.
Trump’s approval rating is about 37%, according to Silver Bulletin figures cited by the BBC. The Guardian reported that an early-October average of national polls showed Democrats leading Republicans by 8.2 points. Midterms have often cost the president’s party House seats, though the outcome is not assured.
Republicans have a substantial financial advantage. The BBC reported that, in mid-October, the Republican National Committee and allied groups had about $320 million on hand, compared with just under $230 million for Democrats, while Trump’s MAGA Inc held more than $160 million. Republicans also outspent Democrats on September political advertising, including in nearly all Senate races rated toss-ups.
If Democrats win the House, Republicans would need their support to pass legislation there. A Democratic majority could also investigate the administration and seek documents and testimony, setting up a different balance of power for the rest of Trump’s term.
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