Key takeaways:
- Rep. Julia Letlow finished first in the May 16 Republican primary with about 44% to 45% of the vote, while John Fleming received 28% and Sen. Bill Cassidy finished third.
- Donald Trump endorsed Letlow after criticizing Cassidy, who voted to convict him in his second impeachment trial after Jan. 6, 2021.
- The runoff winner will be favored in Louisiana, where Trump won 60% of the vote in 2024 and Democrats have not won a Senate race since 2008.
Louisiana Republicans are voting Saturday in a Senate runoff that has become another test of President Donald Trump’s influence, with Rep. Julia Letlow trying to turn his endorsement into victory against state Treasurer John Fleming after GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy failed to advance.
Letlow and Fleming moved to the runoff after no candidate won a majority in the May 16 primary. Letlow finished first, with CBS News reporting she received more than 44% of the vote and NBC News reporting 45%. Fleming placed second with 28%. Cassidy, the incumbent, finished third, with NBC News reporting he won 25%.
Cassidy’s defeat followed months of tension with Trump. Cassidy voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. He also clashed with the administration over Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s leadership, despite casting the key vote to advance Kennedy’s nomination last year. Before the primary, Trump called Cassidy a “disloyal disaster” and endorsed Letlow, calling her a “winner who will NEVER let you down.”
Trump again urged Republicans to support Letlow during a tele-rally Thursday, describing her as a “fearless champion” for Louisiana. Letlow pledged to support Trump’s “America First” agenda and cast the runoff as a choice between “a real conservative fighter or another career politician.”
Letlow, 45, has represented Louisiana in the House since 2021, when she became the first Republican woman from the state elected to Congress. Fleming represented Louisiana in the House from 2009 to 2017, helped found the hard-right House Freedom Caucus and later served in the first Trump administration, including as deputy chief of staff in its final months.
Letlow is expected to have an advantage because of Trump’s backing, but NBC News reported that low turnout could make the race less predictable. “I believe that she’s going to win,” Louisiana GOP strategist Lionel Rainey III, who is not involved in the race, told NBC News. “But I think it’s going to be much, much closer than anybody expects and I would not be shocked if [Fleming] somehow edged this thing out. I don’t think that’s probable. I do think it is possible.”
Fleming has argued that the primary centered more on defeating Cassidy than choosing between the challengers. “We heard over and over, ‘Anybody but Cassidy. Anybody but Cassidy,’” he told NBC News. “The dynamic now is completely different. People are actually looking at the candidates, and what they see is I’m far more conservative in my practice, in my votes, in everything that I do.”
Fleming has presented himself as the true “MAGA conservative,” criticizing Letlow for past support for diversity, equity and inclusion policies and foreign aid. Letlow told NBC News earlier this year that she reversed her position on DEI when she “saw it for what it was” and has since been “fighting against it.”
The runoff has also touched on Senate procedure and election legislation. Trump said Letlow would support the SAVE America Act, a measure he backs to overhaul U.S. election laws. “I am the only candidate in this race who agrees with President Trump that the Senate should nuke the filibuster in order to pass the SAVE America Act,” Letlow said. Fleming said he would be open to eliminating the filibuster to pass the bill, though he expressed concern Democrats could use a filibuster-free Senate to pass their priorities if they regain control.
Letlow has support from Gov. Jeff Landry, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Rep. Clay Higgins, as well as allied super PACs on the airwaves. Higgins endorsed her after Fleming shared an AI-generated deepfake video of Letlow referencing the death of her husband, who died of Covid before being sworn into Congress. Fleming said his campaign did not create AI videos, called parody ads acceptable and later deleted the post.
The runoff winner is likely to be heavily favored in the general election. Louisiana is a solidly Republican state where Trump won 60% of the vote in 2024, and the state last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008.
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