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US Department of Energy Assesses with “Low Confidence” that Covid-19 Likely Originated from a Laboratory Leak in Wuhan, China

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Key takeaways:

  • The US Department of Energy has concluded with “low confidence” that the Covid-19 pandemic “likely” originated from a laboratory leak in Wuhan, China.
  • A low confidence assessment generally means that the information obtained is not reliable enough or too fragmented to make a more definitive analytic judgment.
  • The US Department of Energy’s assessment is the latest in a series of reports from the US government and other countries that have sought to determine the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The US Department of Energy has concluded with “low confidence” that the Covid-19 pandemic “likely” originated from a laboratory leak in Wuhan, China, according to a classified report delivered to key lawmakers on the House and Senate Intelligence Committees.

Two sources with direct knowledge told NBC News that the Department of Energy assessed in the intelligence report that it had “low confidence” the Covid-19 virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan. The report was briefed last month by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to key lawmakers on the intelligence committees.

A low confidence assessment generally means that the information obtained is not reliable enough or too fragmented to make a more definitive analytic judgment or that there is not enough information available to draw a more robust conclusion. Intelligence agencies can make assessments with either low, medium or high confidence.

However, one source cautioned to NBC News that the DOE’s conclusion was not being viewed as hugely significant among the intelligence community due to interagency disagreements about Covid’s origins.

The US Department of Energy’s assessment is the latest in a series of reports from the US government and other countries that have sought to determine the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization has said that the most likely source of the virus is from an animal source, but has not ruled out the possibility of a laboratory leak.

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