Iran hails US midterm results as Trump weighs next steps

Iranian leaders hailed sweeping US midterm election defeats for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party as a rejection of the war on Iran, even as analysts warned that the result does not rule out another American attack.

“Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message,” Iranian parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X on Wednesday. Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation in talks with Washington that produced a short-lived memorandum of understanding in June, also warned that if the US government disregarded voters to serve “international paymasters and blackmailers,” it would learn that Iran’s “NO comes with a Nightmare.”

Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, said Trump had been “defeated in both war and politics” and promised further defeats. The comments reflected a sense of victory among Iranian officials, though neither side has retreated from its position in the conflict.

The elections coincided with the anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran. Iranian authorities held demonstrations and speeches near the former embassy and elsewhere in the capital, while state-organised events took place in other cities. In central Tehran’s Enghelab Square, a giant billboard showed Trump behind bars beneath the English-language message: “We will kill Trump.”

A statement attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said events in the Persian Gulf, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, had undermined the “myth of American invincibility.” Anyone hoping a change in US party politics or concessions to Washington would end its hostility toward Iran was “harshly mistaken,” he said. Khamenei called strength the only route to “absolute deterrence.”

The US and Iran remain at odds over control in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera reported that a US naval blockade, sanctions and disrupted trade are putting heavy pressure on Iran’s population of 90 million. Trump has discussed a possible attack for weeks but says he has not decided whether to launch one.

The election result may sharpen the pressure on Trump to find a way out, without eliminating the possibility of further strikes. “He needs a diplomatic victory or at worst an off-ramp, yet in the face of defeat he may be reluctant to appear weak,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. She said a limited agreement on the strait and the lifting of the blockade looked more realistic than a comprehensive settlement.

Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group told Al Jazeera that Iran’s leaders could become less willing to compromise on their conditions for partially reopening the strait or on the nuclear issue. Barbara Slavin of the Stimson Center said Trump retained broad powers as commander-in-chief before the new Congress takes office, although she viewed all-out war as less likely after the Democratic victories.

The Guardian reported that a Chinese special envoy was set to travel to Oman, Iran and Saudi Arabia as China explored whether a deal involving internationally supervised dilution of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile was feasible. For now, diplomatic efforts and threats of further military action remain side by side.