Key takeaways:
- The Houthis captured as much as 130km of Yemen’s strategically important Red Sea coastline, according to estimates cited by the BBC.
- The group said navigation is safe for all companies except Saudi vessels, which it says are under blockade.
- The advance gives the Houthis greater access to the Bab al-Mandab area, where they had already disrupted shipping since 2023.
Yemen’s Houthis have swept across much of the country’s Red Sea coast in a rapid advance that strengthens their position along one of the world’s most important shipping routes and exposes deep weaknesses in the forces aligned against them.
The Iranian-backed group captured large areas of the southern Tihamah, Yemen’s arid coastal plain, in a matter of days. Until recently, the anti-Houthi National Resistance held significant territory along the Red Sea. According to the BBC, some estimates put the Houthi gains at as much as 130km, or 81 miles, of strategically important coastline.
The advance is the Houthis’ most significant military success in years, coming after 12 years of civil war, Saudi air raids and attacks by American, Israeli and British forces. Analysts said the gains are likely to be difficult to reverse.
“Now that they are there, they’re going to be entrenched,” Hisham al-Omeisi, senior analyst at the Brussels-based European Institute of Peace, told the BBC. “And it’s going to be a lot more costly to push them out.”
The military victory gives the Houthis greater access to the Bab al-Mandab, the narrow gateway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and potentially to nearby islands. The BBC reported that if the group has taken control of islands including Perim, which sits at the narrowest point of the strait, its ability to disrupt international shipping would be greatly enhanced.
Al Jazeera reported that the advance is not a complete change in the balance of maritime power because the Houthis had already been able to threaten shipping since 2023 from areas they controlled farther north, including the major port city of Hodeidah. The group first targeted vessels linked to Israel and the United States, and in recent months Saudi-linked ships.
Abdulqader al-Murtada, a leading Houthi official, said earlier this week that the group did “not need control over Bab al-Mandeb, for the blockade [on Saudi ships] is already in place,” according to Al Jazeera.
Still, the new territory may make Houthi operations easier. Al Jazeera reported that the group now has access to the Red Sea’s narrow entry point and several islands, which could allow it to use shorter-range weapons, reach vessels more easily, board ships and potentially deploy sea mines.
The Houthis said Friday that maritime navigation was “safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels, which have already been subject to a blockade,” the BBC reported. Shipping companies are likely to view that statement cautiously. During earlier attacks, the Houthis said they were targeting ships linked to Israel but struck vessels with no such connection, including a Norwegian-flagged tanker.
The advance also carries wider regional implications. Iran now has influence, directly or through allies, around both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab. Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, told the BBC that Iran “directly and through proxies, controls two of the most strategic choke points in the Middle East and the world,” affecting “more than 35% of the fuel and oil trade globally.”
“This is as much leverage as a nuclear bomb,” he said.
Oil prices have risen as traders weigh the ability of Iran and its allies to disrupt shipping through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, Al Jazeera reported.
The Houthi gains also undercut the Yemeni government’s recent claims of military unity under the Presidential Leadership Council. President Rashad al-Alimi had spoken of a unified chain of command, but the loss of the Red Sea coastline has renewed blame within the anti-Houthi camp, Al Jazeera reported.
Saudi Arabia now faces a difficult choice. Al Jazeera reported that the Houthis may argue Riyadh must negotiate on their terms, including funding public sector salaries, access to income from Yemen’s oil and gas reserves and no restrictions on flights and shipping to Houthi-controlled ports. At the same time, the group has escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia and warned of more if Riyadh increases support for Yemen’s government.
The BBC reported that Axios said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s appeals for U.S. intervention have so far gone unanswered, with Washington seeking to support the kingdom while avoiding direct military involvement.
For Yemen’s civilians, already displaced, bombed, impoverished and hungry after years of war, the renewed escalation threatens to deepen the country’s crisis.
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