Michigan Senate primary tests Democrats’ divide over party’s future

Michigan Democrats will choose a Senate nominee Tuesday in a primary that has become one of the party’s sharpest tests of whether voters want a more moderate candidate with a record of winning swing territory or an insurgent progressive promising sweeping change.

The race for the open seat pits Rep. Haley Stevens, a four-term congresswoman who flipped a suburban House district in 2018, against Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and former Detroit and Wayne County health official who has the backing of leading progressives. The winner is expected to face Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024.

The stakes reach beyond Michigan. Democrats need to net four seats to win back the Senate, but their path also depends on holding the Michigan seat. That has turned the primary into a proxy fight over the party’s direction: establishment versus insurgent, moderate versus progressive, and competing views on how Democrats should confront President Trump.

“You have candidates who are very different,” Joel Rutherford, a Democrat from Warren, told NPR. “This passion has just become so big. I try to tell people this is political, not personal.”

El-Sayed has campaigned on “Medicare for All,” opposition to corporate influence in politics and ending U.S. military aid to Israel. He has the endorsement of the United Auto Workers, as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. At a July picnic for retired UAW members in Warren, voter Gwen Martin said many people are struggling with basic costs. “It’s a choice now between medicine or do you buy groceries or gas,” she told NPR.

El-Sayed says moneyed interests blunt Democratic ambitions. “The problem too often with the Democratic party, we have an instinct to say the right thing, but we’re bought off by the people who are on the side of doing the wrong thing,” he told NPR. “So we’re constantly hedging and pulling punches so we say not much of anything at all.”

Stevens has emphasized her electability, legislative record and work on the Obama administration’s auto rescue during the Great Recession. She has support from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, retiring Sen. Gary Peters and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. “I’m just beating MAGA four times in my Congressional races, and I’m passing laws and I’m doing damn good work,” Stevens told reporters, according to NPR. “We don’t need wishlists. We need action now. That’s the Michigan way.”

The race has also exposed a fault line over Israel. The pro-Israel group AIPAC and its affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project, are spending millions to boost Stevens, a staunch supporter of Israel, and oppose El-Sayed. Talking Points Memo reported that UDP ran ads falsely implying former President Barack Obama endorsed Stevens this cycle and used an out-of-context quote to suggest El-Sayed criticized Michelle Obama.

Both campaigns have sharpened their attacks in the final stretch. Stevens has repeatedly called El-Sayed a “podcaster” and said, “We don’t need a celebrity candidate.” El-Sayed told Semafor, according to Talking Points Memo, “Haley Stevens is a suit with a large AIPAC bank account, that’s it. I hope maybe they find some way to teach her how to string together two coherent sentences.”

After a clip circulated of El-Sayed calling Stevens “the least capable candidate in America,” Stevens responded: “Abdul, we were both on the ballot in 2018. I was capable of winning my competitive primary and general election. You lost.” She added, “You lost by over 20 points to Gretchen Whitmer and you will lose to Mike Rogers by talking like this.”

Polling has been uneven. Talking Points Memo reported that an Emerson College survey released Thursday showed El-Sayed leading Stevens by 16 points, including a 27-point margin among independents. The same outlet reported that a Michigan Education poll showed Stevens tied with Rogers in a head-to-head matchup, while El-Sayed trailed Rogers by 10.

Some Democrats remain focused less on ideology than on who can win in November. “You cannot win in Michigan without being able to sway independents,” Allen Wolf, a Stevens supporter, told NPR. His friend Craig Spangler said taking back the Senate is paramount: “For me, it is all about preserving democracy.”