Makerfield by-election enters final stretch with Labour leadership stakes

Voters in Makerfield head to the polls Thursday in a by-election that could reshape Labour’s leadership and test Reform UK’s growing strength in one of the party’s longtime northern seats.

Labour candidate Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is trying to return to Parliament in the constituency where he grew up and has lived for decades. If he wins, he is expected to challenge Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, the BBC reported. Al Jazeera reported that Burnham intends to make such a challenge if elected.

The contest was triggered when former Labour MP Josh Simons resigned last month to clear the way for Burnham to stand. Simons said Labour was heading toward a divisive leadership contest with “no hope, no energy that anything would change,” and described Makerfield as “where Andy Burnham has lived for 25 years.” He added: “Labour needs to change and the whole government needs to change.”

Burnham has promised to make Westminster “work” for Makerfield and communities like it, saying they have been overlooked for too long. Opponents accuse him of using the seat as a stepping stone to Number 10.

Starmer has warned that a leadership contest would be a “bad” thing for the country and said he would fight any challenge. He also indicated he would offer Burnham a cabinet role if Labour holds the seat, telling reporters: “I hope he wins the by-election and he’ll play a big part in the Labour government.”

Burnham’s closest challenger is Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor who finished second in Makerfield at the 2024 general election. Reform won all seats in the area in recent local elections, and party leader Nigel Farage has been canvassing in the constituency as the campaign closes.

Kenyon has stressed his working-class background and local roots, but his campaign has faced criticism over past social media activity, including remarks on Brexit, abortion and Ukraine. Al Jazeera reported that anti-extremism group HOPE not hate published posts attributed to Kenyon involving COVID-19 conspiracy theories, sexualised comments about television presenter Carol Vorderman and remarks about female rugby players. The group also highlighted online comments in which Kenyon allegedly described himself as sexist and suggested women make false rape allegations to obtain abortions.

When challenged about past remarks by the BBC’s Chris Mason, Kenyon said he was not a “career politician” and that people would “feel listened to” if he became MP.

Polling has suggested a close race, with Burnham ahead. Al Jazeera reported that the largest survey of the campaign, conducted by Opinium for Forward Democracy, put Burnham at 46% among voters most likely to cast a ballot, compared with 41% for Kenyon. The same poll put Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd on 7% and the Conservatives on 2%. When respondents were asked how they would vote in a future general election, Reform led Labour by 42% to 34%, according to Al Jazeera.

Restore Britain, a new party founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is contesting its first by-election and has been polling a distant third, ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. Its candidate, local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd, has pledged to “put Makerfield first” and support the party’s national priorities of “reversing mass immigration” and “rewarding British workers.”

Conservative candidate Michael Winstanley, a former mayor of Wigan, is campaigning on regenerating high streets and reducing road congestion. Liberal Democrat Jake Austin, a councillor in nearby Stockport, is offering what he calls a “sensible alternative” to Labour and Reform. Green candidate Sarah Wakefield, a Manchester City councillor selected after the party’s first candidate withdrew, has told voters: “Don’t vote in anger, vote in hope.”