Key takeaways:
- DHS told California, Nevada, New Jersey and Pennsylvania it believed more than 250,000 noncitizens were on their voter rolls combined.
- California, Nevada and Pennsylvania asked DHS to explain its data sources and methodology, saying they had not provided sensitive voter information such as Social Security numbers.
- New Jersey said a Motor Vehicle Commission error registered about 6,600 self-identified noncitizens, far below the 35,000 alleged by DHS, and said roughly 400 cast ballots between 2023 and 2024.
Election officials in several states are challenging the Department of Homeland Security to explain how it concluded that more than 250,000 non-U.S. citizens were on voter rolls in California, Nevada, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, saying the agency has not shown its data or methodology.
The dispute follows letters from Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin to the four states, sent ahead of President Donald Trump’s primetime White House speech earlier this month in which he made broad claims of voter fraud. Mullin told state officials he believed the four states had more than 250,000 noncitizens on their voter rolls combined and asked them to respond within two weeks. At a news conference the day after Trump’s speech, he also warned of possible prison time for officials who do not “secure their elections.”
California, Nevada and Pennsylvania responded by questioning the basis for the findings. Their top election officials said they had not provided DHS with unredacted voter roll data containing sensitive personal information such as Social Security numbers. The Justice Department has sued all four states, along with more than two dozen others, seeking voter roll data that includes partial Social Security numbers and driver’s license numbers. Those lawsuits have so far been unsuccessful in California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and 15 other states, while the case against Nevada remains pending, according to NPR.
“The American public deserves transparency in how their private information is being used at the federal level,” Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, a Democrat, told NBC News. “I don’t believe the federal government is being honest with the American people.”
Aguilar wrote to Mullin asking how DHS matched Social Security numbers to Nevada registrants and what data sources it used if not information provided by his office. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt, a Republican, also asked DHS to provide a document explaining its methodology and identifying its data sources.
“As you know, past analyses of voter lists have relied on faulty methodologies that can lead to inaccurate results and false claims about the citizenship status of eligible voters,” Schmidt wrote.
California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, said in a July 23 letter that state law prohibits sharing voters’ sensitive information, including Social Security numbers, with any person, including the federal government. “I have serious doubts about the reliability of your data and accuracy of your claims,” Weber wrote. She also asked whether artificial intelligence was used in the federal analysis and requested information on anyone who may have given private voter data to the federal government, saying that would violate state law.
DHS did not respond to requests from NBC News or NPR about its methodology or the states’ responses.
NPR reported that DHS letters said the agency analyzed publicly available voter rolls, but public rolls do not include Social Security numbers. The letters also said the agency found about 118,000 voters across the four states whose “name, date of birth, address and Social Security number match a non-citizen in our files,” a smaller figure than the more than 250,000 cited in a DHS fact sheet.
“These numbers, until they’re backed up by any kind of clear, transparent methodology, should be considered made up,” David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, told NPR.
Noncitizen voting is illegal and rare, and reviews in recent years have found that actual voting by noncitizens is extremely uncommon. Sometimes noncitizens appear on voter rolls, but historically few have attempted to cast ballots.
New Jersey, the fourth state singled out by DHS, recently announced that a Motor Vehicle Commission error led to about 6,600 self-identified noncitizens being registered to vote and that roughly 400 cast ballots between 2023 and 2024. That number was far below the 35,000 noncitizens DHS claimed were on New Jersey’s rolls. Gov. Mikie Sherrill said the state would not share registrant details with the federal government after the Trump administration requested them.
“DOJ will get this information through all legal means!” Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon wrote Tuesday on X.
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