Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face tight race in Brazil

Brazil votes Sunday in a presidential race that pits Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against the son of the man he narrowly defeated four years ago. Polls show a close contest between the 80-year-old president and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, with crime, corruption and the economy high on voters’ minds.

Flávio Bolsonaro is carrying forward the political movement of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 loss to Lula. Flávio has promised to pardon him if elected and has denounced his trial as illegitimate.

Lula is seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive presidential term. His challenger calls himself “a more moderate Bolsonaro,” according to NPR, but has voiced few policy differences with his father. NPR reported that he supports easier access to guns and has cast doubt on humans’ responsibility for climate change.

The Oct. 4 ballot also includes other presidential candidates, legislative races and state governorships. A presidential or gubernatorial candidate must receive more than 50% of valid votes to avoid an Oct. 25 runoff. Brazil’s electronic voting system typically produces results within hours, NPR reported.

The race remains close. Al Jazeera reported that a September Quaest poll put Lula at 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%. An AtlasIntel survey showed 46% to 43%, while a Datafolha poll found 40% to 36%, respectively. Polls suggest an even tighter contest in a hypothetical runoff.

A Sept. 7 Quaest survey, cited by Al Jazeera, found that 31% of respondents named violence as their biggest concern, followed by corruption at 20%, the economy at 19% and health at 12%. Flávio Bolsonaro advocates a hard line on crime. Lula has favored operations against gang financiers and expressed skepticism about foreign influence over Brazilian security policy, NPR reported.

The candidates also offer different economic approaches. Lula’s public spending helped drive growth early in his current term, but growth has since slowed, according to NPR. Al Jazeera reported that unemployment and inflation have remained low while households face rising debt-servicing costs. Flávio Bolsonaro argues that national debt holds back the economy; an adviser has pledged to impose a debt ceiling if he wins.

A scandal involving disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro has touched figures across Brazil’s political spectrum. Al Jazeera reported that Flávio Bolsonaro sought funds from Vorcaro for a documentary about his father. It also reported that Lula’s former finance minister helped arrange a meeting involving Vorcaro and Lula. Lula said he told the banker there would be no political interference in his case. NPR reported that Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation for potential money laundering, which he denies.

The United States has become another campaign issue. Flávio Bolsonaro promises closer ties with President Donald Trump. Lula has resisted U.S. pressure over Brazil’s judiciary and accused Washington in July of trying to interfere in the election; the State Department called that accusation “a baseless lie,” according to NPR.

The winner is expected to nominate four of Brazil’s 11 Supreme Court justices, giving the election consequences well beyond the next presidential term.